2nd October 2026
We would like to bring to your attention the increasing challenges currently affecting global ocean freight, particularly across Asia, and the potential impact these disruptions may have on your upcoming shipments.
According to recent analysis from maritime consultancy Sea-Intelligence, a combination of severe typhoons, port congestion and operational disruption across major Asian ports has resulted in a significant reduction in available global shipping capacity.
How serious is the situation?
The latest findings highlight the scale of the disruption:
- 8.5% of the global container fleet is currently being absorbed by vessel delays, effectively removing approximately 3 million TEU (20ft container equivalents) from available shipping capacity. To put this into perspective, this is roughly equivalent to the capacity of the world’s fifth-largest container shipping line.
- Global schedule reliability fell to just below 50% in August, meaning fewer than half of scheduled vessel arrivals were on time.
- Schedule reliability has declined by 12.7 percentage points over July and August combined, marking one of the sharpest two-month deteriorations recorded since monitoring began in 2011.
- The average delay for vessels arriving behind schedule has increased to 6.8 days, a level previously exceeded only during the worst disruption periods of the Covid pandemic.
These figures demonstrate that the current challenges are not isolated incidents but are having a considerable impact on the wider global shipping network.
Why is this happening?
The primary cause of the recent deterioration has been a continuous series of typhoons affecting key Asian ports, resulting in port closures, congestion, vessel backlogs and significant disruption to sailing schedules. As vessels fall behind schedule, shipping lines are experiencing reduced equipment and vessel availability, creating a knock-on effect across global trade routes. For context, between 2011 and 2019, vessel delays typically absorbed an average of just 2.2% of global shipping capacity. The current figure of 8.5% is therefore considerably above normal operating levels.
How long could this continue?
Unfortunately, industry analysis suggests that the disruption is unlikely to be resolved in the immediate future. Based on historical recovery patterns, Sea-Intelligence estimates that it could take approximately 7–10 months for capacity absorption to return to normal levels, potentially extending into June 2027. Even returning to the congestion levels seen at the end of 2025 could take approximately six to eight months. Of particular concern is the upcoming Chinese New Year on 6th February 2027. This means Asian ports could still be experiencing congestion as manufacturers, shipping lines and freight forwarders prepare for the traditional pre-holiday increase in cargo volumes.
What does this mean for your shipments?
Whilst not every shipment will be affected to the same extent, customers should be prepared for the possibility of:
- Longer and less predictable ocean freight transit times.
- Changes to vessel schedules and estimated arrival dates.
- Increased congestion at origin and transhipment ports.
- Potential pressure on vessel space and equipment availability.
- Additional challenges when planning time-sensitive deliveries and stock replenishment.
Our advice to CCT customers
With the above in mind, we strongly recommend planning your shipments as far in advance as possible, particularly where goods are required for specific delivery dates, production schedules or seasonal demand.
Where possible, we encourage customers to allow additional contingency within their supply chains and avoid relying solely on published vessel schedules when calculating expected delivery dates. Our team at CCT will continue to work closely with our shipping partners, monitor developments and communicate any significant changes that may affect your cargo.
We appreciate that reliability and predictability are essential to your business, and we want to ensure you have the information needed to make informed decisions during this challenging period.
If you have any upcoming shipments, urgent requirements or concerns regarding your current cargo, please do not hesitate to contact the CCT team. We are here to help you plan ahead and minimise disruption wherever possible.